2024 Draft - Part 12 - The History of Our 2024 Draft Slots - Draft Slots #36, #48 and #84

 As we continue to move towards the 2024 draft, I wanted to look back at the history of each of the 21 slots the Guardians will draft at this year.  Although it would be obvious to start with their 1st pick at 1-1, I am going, instead, to finish with that pick and start with the Guardians' second pick of the 2024 draft, at slot 36 and included information on slots #48 and #84, as well. 

While I recognize that who is picked at each slot in the draft is a complex mixture of teams drafting for need, drafting to save money, drafting to spend excess money and, of course, the ubiquitous 'teams like who they like', I think it is a good look back into the history of these draft slots, if nothing else  

Note that while I have done research on all 59 of the previous drafts, I am only including the players who have made the majors who were drafted BEFORE 2020, as those drafted since then are still writing their own stories.

So let's dive into the draft history of these three slots as we approach the 60th year of the MLB June draft:

SLOT 36

• 34 out of 55 picks at this slot (through 2019) have spent time in the majors
• Johny Bench was the inaugural (1965) pick
• While it would be hard to beat Bench's success as a #36 pick, Randy Johnson was also drafted at that slot
• Cleveland has twice drafted at #36, with the first time being Chris Bando in 1978, likely the worst June draft in Cleveland history.  The next time they had that slot was in 2020 when they drafted Tanner Burns, who seems to be establishing his worth as a relief pitching prospect for the Guardians.

Slot 48

• 26 out of 55 picks at this slot (through 2019) have spent time in the majors
• Cal Ripken and Josh Donaldson are the two most notable players who were picked at this slot.
• The Guardians have twice selected at #48, picking Pete Carganilla in 1984 and Javi Herrera in 2003.  Neither made it to the majors with the latter being overdrafted with the thought that they could take a great defensive catcher and turn his sub-par hitting around, which history will tell us did not happen.  Keep that in mind, Guardians, when you are drafting this year.

Slot 84

• 14 of 55 picks at this slot (through 2019) have made the majors
• The most notable of the players selected in this slot through 2019 were David West and Jeremy Guthrie, although the latter did not sign and was drafted in the first round (slot 22) the following year by Cleveland.
• Cleveland has NEVER drafted at this slot although Chris Valaika (2006) and Owen Miller (2018) were drafted at #84 and both have spent time with the Guardians as a hitting coach and utility player acquired in the Mike Clevinger trade, respectively.

Where Do We Go From Here?

Next time we will look at slots #113, #146 and #175.

The Race to Be 1-1 in 2024 - Part 4 - Settling Into The Daily Rhythm

 OK, we are now halfway through April.  College teams have been playing games for 2 months now and the usual suspects are now over 150 plate appearances or approaching 50 IP.

I am thinking that it is almost 100% certain that we are going with a college bat at 1-1. Sowith that in mind, here are how the players at the top of my draft board are doing.

Travis Bazzana - Travis just continues to steam along.  There have been a few cracks in the armor, a 2-error game, a game where he got picked off TWICE, only 8 stolen bases so far after 36 last year.  But, for the most part, the numbers seem to indicate that he has been solid on both sides of the ball.  In fact, if he was up to 20 steals right now (instead of 8), I don't know that I would be listening to discussion of anyone else, especially since Bazzana is an up-the-middle player and still has more HRs than Ks. He is a little older than most college players in the draft.  He ended the weekend with a 1-4, BB, 2K game and didn't deliver in the 8th when his team was trying to come back, so there's that (more to come on that in an upcoming article).  Through games of April 14th here are his 'raw' numbers (i.e., devoid of analytics)

AB: 123 ABs

R: 56

H: 56

RBI: 45

2B: 8

3B: 4

HR: 18 

SB/CS: 8/4

BB/K: 45/15

AVE/OBP/SLG/OPS: .455/.610/1.024/1.634

Charlie Condon - Condon set such a torrid, video-game-like pace for himself early in the season there is no way he could keep it up, right?  Well, he's been pretty darn close as he is still cranking out HRs and still is keeping his Ks down, meaning his HR/K rate is still video-game-like.  He has played all over the field including starting mid-week games in CF and 3B but the word on the street is that that is all window dressing and he will end up as a 1B/DH/LF option only in the pros.  We'll see about that in a few years!  Still, with that spectre hanging over his head and with his numbers starting to come down, he looks like a solid #2 in the prospect list because, frankly, he hasn't been hurt, he's been productive and we know he will not be limited to 1B like Kurtz will be.  In any case, you can't argue with the bat, at least at the college level.  And he hits and throws RHed which, as it turns out, is good if you are an outfielder but not so good if you are a first baseman.  The only other blemish on his resume is that he is a draft-eligible sophomore meaning he likely won't come cheap if you were thinking the Guardians were going to bank some money from their 1-1 pick to use on later picks.

AB: 137

R: 51

H: 66

RBI: 52

2B: 12

3B: 1

HR: 24

SB/CS: 2/1

BB/K: 32/25

AVE/OBP/SLG/OPS: .424/.526/1.109/1.697

JJ Wetherholt - I have mixed emotions for this kid.  On one hand the hamstring injury, following one last summer, probably eliminates him from spots 1-1 or 1-2, and maybe even through 1-5 so this will cost him money.  At the same time there is no way teams will be so off him that he will last to pick 10, meaning he still will get paid.  His hit tool and his middle of the field potential is just so great that he would be an incredible bargain starting at 1-6 and there would have to be a slew of guys who go ballistic down the stretch for him to fall even to 1-9.  So don't really focus on the numbers below.  Look at his numbers from last year and dream on those.  That is what his drafting team will see as they can possibly get a 1-1 talent for about $4 million less than what he was worth in January.  

AB: 41

R: 12

H:13

RBI: 8

2B: 3

3B: 0

HR: 2

SB/CS: 3/0

BB/K: 10/6

AVE/OBP/SLG/OPS: .317/.467/.624/1.091

Nick Kurtz - Kurtz was the most vulnerable college player (vulnerable to drop if things went wrong for him) simply because he is limited to first base.  He could go .295/25 HR/.850 OPS as a LFer but those numbers, while very good, just don't ring true for a 1-1 first baseman.  He is going nuclear right now so we will see if teams overlook his early season slump and shoulder injury, the latter of which is MUCH more concerning to me as he can and probably would play through this in college as his draft value hangs in the balance, which might cause more damage and cause him to miss pro time next year.  But that nuclear HR binge he is on is bringing him back to top 5 discussions, especially for teams who are rebuilding and would be happy with that production as a building block to their team of the future, no matter if it is from LF or 1B, especially with how good he is said to be at 1B.

AB: 91

R: 38

H: 33

RBI: 38

2B: 5

3B: 1

HR: 16

SB/CS: 1/0

BB/K: 39/19

AVE/OBP/SLG/OPS: .333/,505/.744/1.414

Braden Montgomery - Early in the year people were talking about Vance Honeycutt as the colleg 5-tool guy and people are even talking about HSer Konnor Griffin (see below), developing into that guy as he matures.  But now with the binge Montgomery is on people are talking about him being THAT guy.

While I don't buy it, that is the talk and, with his numbers and the potential for top of the shelf athleticism, he is in the conversation for top 5, to be sure, and if some scouting director wants to roll the dice, even as early as 1-2 because the other guys in the top 10 all have warts they are unlikely to lose and Montgomery has no obvious detriments that can't be polished, at least on paper.

AB: 137

R: 45

H: 52

RBI: 58

2B: 11

3B: 1

HR: 19

SB/CS: 4/2

BB/K: 33/28

AVE/OBP/SLG/OPS: ./.891/1.399380/.509

SUMMARY

So Bazzana is still at the top of the leader board for me.  He is not nearly the sexiest guy in this group but he just checks all the boxes for me.  People think you have to get a franchise talent at 1-1 but, in this class, I think you have to get a perennial all-star and I think Bazzana is that guy with an upside of Jose Ramirez and a downside of Jason Kipnis.  Reasonable people can disagree and some people are thinking Condon, more and more are thinking Montgomery and some are thinking Kurtz or Wetherholt if we can get a discount.  Finally, there are those people who dream on Konnor Griffin being a franchise talent, and don't kid yourself, there are a lot of people who think that we should go for a franchise talent, no matter if it is a risky pick.  

I am pretty sure it's going down to the wire for the Guardians choice and I am also relatively sure that money will have something to do with it.  I can't help but notice that the Guardians are giving away most of their remaining international bonus pool (ca. $400,000, I think).  Maybe the goal is, now that we have 1-1, to save a little money for the draft.  

View From (Almost) The Top - The Guardians As They Approach The Home Opener

 55-98.  That's all the Guardians have to go the rest of the year to beat my prediction of 61-101. 

On the very top two atomic layers of the surface, the Guardians' start is very encouraging.  

• Vogt's managing has been REALLY good.  
• The starting pitching has given us just what we need to be successful, a chance to win every game
• Our bullpen, with the exception of Barlow and Morgan, has been outstanding and these 2 have good enough track records to be hopeful that they will turn things around.
• Our hitting, like our startng pitching, has given us just enough to be successful.
• Heck, even our two losses have been by only 1 run and both after great comebacks by the offense.
• While there have been more misplays (on the basepaths and on defense) than a successful ML team should have, we have weathered those gaffes which, hopefully, will be fixed in short order as, like I said, ML teams should not have these sorts of bonehead defense and baserunning blunders, no matter what the record.

Note that this is exactly the same MO that the 2022 played under: beating the odds and putting up outstanding performance after outstanding performance against all odds and with more than the average percentage of players having surprisingly good seasons...and without a lot of physical breakdowns.

Also note that this year the Pittsburgh Pirates are 8-2.  This follows 2023 when they started 7-3 and then 20-8 but ended up 56-78 in the last portion of the season for a final 76-86, identical to the final record the Guardians posted in 2023.

There it is!  He successfully snatches negativity from the jaws of optimism!

Given how the Guardiansverse has reacted to Shane Bieber's TJ surgery announcement, you would guess that many Guardians fans either felt the optimism of the team's (and Bieber's) early-season performance or simply were playing ostrich and forgetting about this team's inherent deficits and questionable off-season moves and non-moves that were going to catch up to them at some point.

So, for me, nothing has changed.  There are reasons both for optimism and pessimism.  

So let's check with the angel on my right shoulder who is optimistic for the following reasons:

• We are 7-2 and Jose has not kicked it into gear yet.  There should be some uptick in our offense from him.
• Steven Kwan and Andres Gimenez are looking like improved versions of their 2022 seasons, exactly what we would have liked to see in 2023.  This uptick in offense looks like it will be there long term.
• Tyler Freeman looks like an offensive upgrade to Myles Straw and appears to be very playable in CF.
• Although he has started slowly, Bo Naylor will clearly be an offensive upgrade to what we had at the beginning of last year.
• The bullpen has been incredible and there are more prospects in the minors who showed out at ST and in the beginning of the year in the minors plus getting Curry back could be crucial as we may need him as an opener.
• Hedges is as advertised.  He is a positive clubhouse presence and a good mentor for Bo Naylor.  Still, with Bieber out for the season, how is he going to get playing time with Naylor and Fry being able to fill the primary catcher spots?
• We have Manzardo and DeLauter in the minors for an infusion of offense and youthful enthusiasm just when we need it during the season....right?

Now, on my other shoulder the devil is telling me:

• The Guardians painted themselves into a corner by trading Civale last July and Quantrill in the off-season.  It meant they were counting on Bieber and McKenzie to come back just to give us 5 good starters.  That plan has already gone in the toilet as Beiber is out for the season and the rotation plan is looking even more shaky as McKenzie looked highly questionable in his first start of the year.  Even with Carrasco giving us good opener-type performances we are still short on starters.  And there isn't anyone coming up from the minors.  Cantillo is hurt for 2 months and wouldn't have been ready during that 2 month stretch anyway as he still has significant polishing to do.  Dion is at least a year away and there is really no other prospect at AAA now that Espino is down for the year.  The FO put us in a situation that it had to be Bieber, McKenzie, Bibee, Williams and Allen. No ML-ready minor leaguers this year and except for Carrasco, no one who is capable of carrying the water bottle for any of the top 5 was brought in as a free agent this off-season.  The FO simply chose to go with that 5 and it already isn't working.
• Our SS situation is highly questionable.  Although Rocchio is hitting, his fielding doesn't look like it plays as a ML SS.  Arias is quickly becoming this year's forgotten man as even when he does play he doesn't look motivated.  It would be great to send him to AAA for a reality check but our AAA middle infielders are either hurt (Martinez) or not playing like they are ready (Tena, Brito).  If we didn't have a roster crunch and if he didn't hit left-handed, I might be tempted to bring up Schneeman to be the utility guy as at least I know he would show the hunger to stay in the majors.
• Our experiment with Florial appears to be going down the toilet, too.  He is showing what he has shown with the Yankees in his brief trials with them.  He may be a major leaguer for some team, some year.  It is just getting more and more obvious that it won't be for the Guardians this year.
• Laureano and his $5.1 million contract is looking as bad as I thought it would.  He is a journeyman player and those guys are worth $1-2 million in the current market.
• No way both the Twins and Tigers tank it bad enough for us to make the playoffs.  Both will do enough damage against the Guardians and enough damage against common opponents that the Guardians' weaknesses are likely to cause them to take enough losses to not even win in the weakest division in baseball.

This is what the angel and the devil on my shoulders are telling me.  The bright-eyed 10-year old optimist in me says that we can pull this off, just like in 2022.  But the jaded senior citizen in me says that we were in trouble before Bieber went down and the hole we had to climb out of got much deeper.  But I figured that all in with my 61-101 pre-season prediction.    Much has changed in the positive direction with our early-season success but enough has gone wrong already, especially with the pitching, that I think it balances all the positive out.  

People are saying Bieber's injury is the last nail in the coffin of 2024 for the Guardians.  While that might be true, those of you who read my blog know that I have said for a long time that 2024 was being set up by the FO as a prep year for 2025 and that fans should be in for the rough ride that Dolan hinted at for 2022.  

You also know that I have said not to trade Bieber this past off-season (given how few legitimate starting pitchers we had) unless you got overwhelmed, which must not have happened, meaning he was worth more to us than in trade.  The fact that he is now worth nothing in trade doesn't change the trajectory of 2024 nor, truth be told, 2025, as the return would likely have been decent but not enough to move the needle in 2025.

So my advice to Guardians fans is the same advice I would have given to 2023 Pirates fans.  Enjoy the ride and realize you are retooling for future seasons.  

When opening day comes tomorrow realize that this season, no matter what the record, is not a failure unless we stop developing our young players and wasting prospects or money trying in a futile attempt to bring in veterans to compete with teams like the Dodgers.  That WOULD be a failure and a waste of resources (see Nolan Jones, Will Benson and Junior Caminero).  

So, fellow fans, enjoy the ride and ride this winning streak as long as you can and, after that, don't whine that we didn't trade Bieber, don't whine that the FO didn't overpay FAs or sign a couple of expensive guys who might have gotten us to the wildcard round in the playoffs, but no further.  Look at the big picture and plan to get your season tickets in 2025.  Now THAT is going to be an exciting team and this year, like 1993 &1994 before 1995, is just the prelude to the opening act of the next wave of Guardians winning seasons.

Go Guards!  As the case when I was a kid, if they win I am happy.  If they lose I am happy I got to root for them.  The only difference now is that I get to watch every game on MLB Network and don't have a bedtime that causes me to have to sneak my transistor radio under my pillow to listen to the team I love.

Guardians Top Prospect List - 2024 Minor League Opening Day List

 

OK, all the full-season minor leagues have opened (Lake County was weathered out...) so, with those in mind and with updated injury and release news, here is the first version of the 2024 in-season prospect list for the Guardians.  The players I noted in the last version, Rocchio, Gaddis, Herrin and Fry all made the opening day ML roster and so should exhaust their rookie status in short order and De Los Santos (who might be as high as 11th on this list) was returned to Arizona

1. Chase DeLauter
2. Jaison Chourio
3. Juan Brito
4. Kyle Manzardo

5. Angel Martinez
6. Alex Clemmey
7. Jose Tena
8. Joey Cantillo

9. Andrew Walters

10. Welbyn Francisca
11. Ralphy Velazquez
12. Daniel Espino
13. George Valera
14. Angel Genao
15. Khalil Watson
16. Cade Smith
17. Ryan Webb
18. Robert Arias
19. Jonathon Rodriguez
20. Jhonkensy Noel
21. Rafael Ramirez Jr.
22. Will Dion
23. Dayan Frias
24. Jacob Zibin
25. Petey Halpin
26. Jake Fox
27. Jackson Humphries
28. Ethan Hankins
29. Franco Aleman
30. Tanner Burns
31. Lenny Torres, Jr.
32. Doug Nikhazy
33. C. J. Kayfus
34. Daniel Schneeman
35. Justin Campbell
36. Parker Messick
37. Cooper Ingle
38. Jose Devers
39. Wuilfredo Antunez
40. Robert Lopez
41. Brayan Lavastida
42. Alex Mooney
43. Ross Carver
44. Nick Mikolajczak
45. Jose Pirela
46. Yerlin Luis
47. Jack Leftwich
48. Shawn Rapp
49. Alexfri Planez
50.  Joe Lampe
51. Justin Boyd
52. Juan Benjamin
53. Davis Sharpe
54. Nate Furman
55. Milan Tolentino
56. Tyler Thornton
57. Trey Benton
58. Micah Pries
59. Raynel Delgado
60. Aaron Bracho
61. Jose Cedeno
62. Andrew Misiaszek
63. Gabriel Rodriguez the elder
64. Tommy Mace
65. Connor Kokx
66. Victor Izturis
67. Dylan DeLucia
68. Hunter Stanley
69. Magnus Ellerts
70. Aaron Davenport
71. Reid Johnston
72. Kody Huff
73. Yorman Gomez
74. Alonzo Richardson
75. Miguel Flores
76. Gabriel Rodriguez the younger
77. Juneiker Caceres
78. Manuel Mejias
79. Bradley Hanner
80. Randy Labaut
81. Christian Knapczyk
82. Alaska Abney
83. Joe Naranjo
84. Yeury Gervacio
85. Estivel Morillo
86. Luis Reyson De La Cruz
87. Alberto Mendes
88. Nic Enright
89. Christian Cairo
90. Luis Merejo
91. Yaikel Mijaras
92. Mack Collado
93. Trenton Denholm
94. Isaiah Greene
95. Josh Wolf
96. Luis Aparicio
97. Jonathon Martinez
98. Esteban Gonzalez
99. Matt Wilkinson
100. Keegan Zinn
101. Jorge Burgos
102. Javier Santos
103. Luis Durango Jr.
104. Evilio Hernandez
105. Melkis Hernandez
106. Jordan Jones
107. Adam Tulloch
108. Edelvis Perez
109.  Austin Aldeano
110. Jake Miller
111. Fran Alduey
112. Tommy Hawke
113. Guy Lipscomb
114. Jacob Bresnahan
115. Juan Frances
116. Johan Rodriguez
117. Dauri Fernandez
118. Randy Martinez
119. Tommy Reyes
120. Nelson Arangguren
121. Logun Clark
122. Jay Driver
123. Jonah Advincula
124. Geo Rivera Jr.
125. Zach Pettway
126. Yelferth Castillo
127. Romar Taveras
128. Heibert Silva
129. Yorfran John
130. Yanki Baptiste
131. Jose Pastrano
132. Brian Eichhorn
133. Connor Gillispie
134. Mason Hickman
135. Micael Ramirez
136. Angel Perez
137. Andrew Teaney
138. Carson Tucker
139. Richard Paz
140. Allan Hernandez
141. Sergio Morillo
142. Yordys Valdez
143. Johny Tincher
144. Tyler Brown
145. Elvis Jerez
146. Victor Planchart
147. Hugo Villalobos
148. Rodney Boone
149. Austin Peterson
150. Angel Zarate
151. Tyrese Turner
152. Pres Cavanaugh
153. Jeff Jasak
154. John Doxaxis
155. Carter Spivey

Saturday Thoughts: First 2 Games, New Bullpen Additions, Minor League Rosters, Race for 1-1 ***Updated***

Hi from a rainy San Diego on a Saturday morning.  Lots to unpack so let's go:

***Updated to Include the Lake County Roster and Associated Discussion***

GUARDIANS ARE 2-0

Oakland is struggling.  13,000+ on opening night, 3,000+ the second game.  It's almost like playing in 2020.  I feel for the diehard A's fans.  I saw the angst in Cleveland when the Browns left.  I saw it in St. Louis when the Rams left.  At least in those cases it was not so drawn out.  Their roster is built to lose and even trades they have made to infuse prospects (e.g., Muller, Ruiz) that looked light at the time have gone way past 'light', approaching 'close to zero return' levels.  That being said, here are my thoughts from the first two games relative to how the Guardians looked.

• Bieber looked good.  More than anything else, he was classic Bieber, with the help of Hedges getting almost every single close pitch.
• This team appears much less susceptible to LH pitching, at least in the first game (more today).  Good starts for Fry and Freeman give a lot of promise.  Plus Laureano, Hedges and even Arias (LOL) are righties who at least will at least mentally psyche out LHSP, even if they can't hit them very well.
• Logan Allen is a good 5th starter on a good team.  He showed that again in game 2.  If we score a lot for him he should have a very good record this year.  If we score very little for him he will look pretty bad.  However, if he keeps his head together, his ERA and the peripherals should look the same regardless: 4.10 ERA, H/IP = 1,  BB/9 = 3, BB/K = 2.2 ,  HR/9 = 1.1, innings per start = 5.8.  He will have his good games and his bad games and the hope is that we win 2/3 of his good starts and split on his bad starts.  But this is a HUGE hope and rests squarely on the offense and defense.
• Speaking of defense, the construction of the Guardians this year makes it imperative that we play good defense.  So far our Gold/Platinum Glovers, Kwan and Gimenez look great.  Naylor, Ramirez, Hedges/other Naylor, Brennan/Laureano look like they should, Freeman looks comfortable but hasn't been challenged yet.  The one guy who looks really shaky so far is Rocchio.  His arm looks short for SS and it is possible, if Rocchio hits, next year could see a flip flop of him and Gimenez,   I don't see it this year because they need and want Gimenez at 2B.
• Not sold yet that Ramirez and Gimenez will improve from their 2023 issues of trying to do too much offensively.  Although I think Kwan and Brennan WILL improve this year over last, I am not convinced that will move the needle enough to cause a change in trajectory of this year for the Guardians.
• Laureano, with the fat contract and the guarantee of playing time, has not exactly hit the ground running, looking more like what his stats would have predicted he would be for a guy who really hasn't been a plus contributor since 1999.  
• Florial looks lost but he will get enough opportunities to give him a chance that he never really got in the Yankees system.  We may have to watch him be overmatched for 2 months here so be ready for the pain of watching him flail at fastballs in the zone and at breaking balls low and away and, of course, an inordinate number of 3-pitch strikeouts, sprinkled in with the occasional stolen base.  Of course, the issue is that you can't steal first!
• Fry had a confidence-building start in the opener as did Freeman and, to some extent, Rocchio.  Good for them as I think all three will be offensive contributors this year beyond what a lot of nay-sayers were saying when they wanted to throw all three in the trash bin over the winter.
• A key to the season and the future will be how McKenzie holds up this year.  It is almost unfathomable to me that he will have a 2022-like season but, if he does, this team's near-term and long-term fortunes go up dramatically as he always had ace stuff, IMO.

NEW BULLPEN ADDITIONS

On Thursday, right before the opener, the Guardians announced they had acquired two relievers, Zac Kent (26) and Peter Strzelecki (29), both of who took 40-man roster spots and both of whom, thankfully, are not on the major league roster.  These aere typical, ridiculous trades by our FO, doing things that are non-sensical.  Let's examine these trades:

• First, these trades were designed to provide 'much needed bullpen depth at AAA'.  A perusal of the opening day roster for Columbus shows that they have the following WITHOUT Kent and Strzelecki:
• Starters: Will Dion, Connor Gillispie, Hunter Stanley, Jaime Barria, Adam Oller
• Relievers: Aleman, Banda, Burns, Doxakis, Enright, Gose, Hickman, Labout, Sabrowski
• IL: Cantillo (SP),  Brown (SP), Arias (RP)

Looking at this list I see NINE relief pitchers without Kent and Strzelecki, almost all of them prospects.

Now let's look at Kent and Strzelecki:

• Zac Kent had a decent year in AAA last year as an opener at AAA but had a 8.10 ERA in the AFL, followed by an ERA of over 10 this spring.   26 year olds who have never played in the majors, who have had an injury history like Kent's and put up stats like this are minor league free agent signings.
• Strzelecki, on the other hand, seems like a decent addition, albeit being 29 years old.  I wouldn't be appalled if he played for us in the majors at some point this year.   

Likely, each of these guys were going to be DFA'd and would have been available at the waiver price of $50,000 or, if released, for nothing other than their minor league salary.   Strzelecki was acquired for cash, which was likely to be around $60,000 (slightly more than the waiver price).   Kent was acquired for international bonus pool money.  As I indicated in a previous post, my calculations have the Guardians having over $450,000 left in their international bonus pool for 2024 so this makes sense.  So it doesn't really cost the Guardians anything for Kent but it does, like Strzelecki he does occupy a roster spot.  

I don't see the logic in either of these acquisitions as I don't see either of these guys moving the needle on this season while both of them block prospects like Trey Benton and Davis Sharpe who will be at AA.  As I said, another head-scratching acquisition for the Guardians.   If the stated goal is to play the kids why would we add 29- and 26-year old middle relief candidates who are not needed and will, likely, take away reps from prospects we are trying to groom to be major leagues.  Add to that question the timing of the move when we were all hoping for news on extensions for guys like Josh Naylor and it was all just frustrating and even infuriating, given how little was done this off-season under the guise of playing the kids.   

MINOR LEAGUE ROSTERS

The minor league rosters are being rolled out for Guardians' affiliates.  Let's look at them to see what stands out.

Columbus (AAA)

This roster is stacked with prospects, but not so stacked that it will be hard to find playing time for our high level prospects coming out of the gate.  Here is a projected opening day lineup.

Straw CF 

Brito 2B

Rodriguez RF

Manzardo 1B

Noel LF

Schneeman 3B

Tena SS

Lavastida C

Delgado DH

When Angel Martinez comes back, hopefully soon, you could plug him in for Delgado and have a lineup of all prospects plus Straw.  This does hurt the chances of Pries, Delgado and Cedrola getting playing time and if Valera comes back soon, probably one of those guys will have to be reassigned or released.

As far as the pitching staff, it is readily apparent for the entire off-season that there is a problem with depth starters at AAA now that Cantillo is out for 2+ months with the hamstring injury.  Maybe when Lively and Curry Will Dion is the only prospect starter they have with the rest of the rotation being pieced together with AAA types.    The bullpen, on the other hand, looks really interesting with Aleman, Burns, LaBout, Gose and Enright, not to mention all the AAAA guys we acquired last fall and this spring.  Hopefully those 5 get the bulk of the bullpen experiences this season although I think their reps may suffer now that 40-man guys Kent and Strzelecki are in the group.   

Akron (AA)

There are a number of interesting positions players here.  At catcher we get our first look at Kody Huff who was acquired in the Quantrill giveaway to Colorado.  He looks like an organizational guy to me but the Guardians are apparently higher on him than his stats and pedigree would seem to warrant.  Backing him up is Micael Ramirez who still is on the edge of being a prospect.  The infield has Bracho, Frias, Watson and Tolentino, all who have prospect potential and the overdrafts Cairo and Valdes who have fizzled as prospects.  In the OF there is DeLauter, Halpin, Lampe and Planez.  DeLauter is obviously the crown jewel but Halpin is a true prospect, Planez had a Noel trajectory before he was injured and Lampe is on the borderline of being a failed slap hitter from the 2022 draft who needs a big year to redeem the scouting department for overdrafting yet another LHH slap hitter with a good batting eye.  If you remember Lampe started hot at Lake County but fizzled out, becoming more of an afterthought as the year went on.  

As far as pitching, there are a lot of underperforming guys, guys with limited tools but who are grinders and guys with potentially electric stuff if they can harness it.  EIGHT pitchers from the 2021 draft are here and they all have various levels of ML potential.  Put those guys together with Benton, Torries Jr.,, Carver, Hanner and Jones and this would be the best collection of arms on a team in our entire minor league system.  That doesn't even count former first rounder Ethan Hankins and 2023 2nd rounder Andrew Walters who has stuff electric enough he could be in the big leagues in the last half of this year.  As I said, clearly, to me, the most exciting minor league pitching staff in our system with every single guy having some chance of pitching in the majors some day. EVERY SINGLE GUY.

Lake County (High A)

***Updated as LC roster has now been published:

C Cooper Ingle

1B - CJ Kayfus

INF - Maick Collado

INF - Jose Devers

INF - Nate Furman

INF - Alex Mooney

INF/OF Jake Fox

OF - Guy Lipscomb

OF - Justin Boyd

LHSP - Parker Messick

LHSP - Steve Hajjar

RHRP - Magnus Ellerts

RHP - Trenton Denholm

RHRP - Alaska Abney

RHRP - Shawn Rapp

RHRP - Jake Miller

The rest of the players and pitching staff appear to be just organizational guys and/or returning players,  making this team not very competitive in their league but at least the guys in bold above are somewhat interesting with a number being top 30 prospects.  Maybe some of these guys, as well, will surprise us and rock our top 30 list come November.

Lynchburg (A)

Every position player is either an interesting prospect or a high college draft pick who should perform at a high level and make the team more competitive.  The pitching staff is less stacked than the position players with a lot of organizational college pitchers from the 2023 draft and some interesting returning and new arms signed through our international system.  There is a chance this pitching staff, performance-wise, could be very competitive with, of course, heightened interest in Clemmey, Humphries, Gomez and Richardson.    In summary as far as Lynchburg, I could see this being one of the most exciting teams in our system to watch as either guys will explode out of Lynchburg this year or, if healthy and not performing, fall into the organizational player bin by the end of this season.

I did want to interject one comment, though.  At least 50% of the value of Ralph Velasquez was the possibility that he could catch as a pro.  While he has a good hit tool it is, in my opinion, a Comp A or early 2nd round profile w/o being a catcher.  So the fact that they list him as an infielder is disappointing if they have, indeed, given up on him as a catcher.  My pick for that spot was Hurston Waldrep who is the 87th ranked prospect in baseball by MLB Pipeline and is starting his first full pro season in AA with a real chance to pitch in Atlanta this year, exactly where he could have been if the Guardians drafted him instead of letting him fall to the very next pick where the astute Atlanta Braves picked him up.  BTW, Velasquez was nowhere to be found in the MLB Pipeline top 100.

RACE FOR 1-1

More on this at the end of the weekend but the presumptive #1, Travis Bazzana, had a rough two nights on Thursday and Friday.  He went 1-2 with a couple of walks on Thursday but got picked off twice, once in the 9th of a 1-1 game with a couple of guys on and the batter having a 3-0 count.  His hit was an infield hit he legged out.   On Friday he had a good line on paper with his 5th leadoff HR in the last 6 games and 3 walks in going 1-2.  However, he committed 3 errors as his team got crushed 17-4.

Charlie Condon's Georgia team crushed it's opponent on Friday but Condon went a harmless 1-4 with a walk and a K.

As I said, more on this on Monday after the dust settles on weekend conference matchups. 

61-101 - My Major League Cleveland Guardians' Predictions

 61-101

It's in the title and in big, bold letters in the first line of this post. Looking back at old MS word documents, I have been blogging and writing about Cleveland's ML baseball team for almost 30 years now.  every year I make predictions, including the record of the ML team.  At no time in the past have I ever suggested the Guardians would lose 100 games.  In fact, in club history, only 5 times have they ever lost 100 or more games in a season: 1991 (105 losses), 1987 (101), 1985 (102), 1971 (102), 1914 (102) have they ever lost 100 games in a season.  

Yet, in 2024, I am predicting that they will lose more than 100 games for the first time in 33 years!  What brings me to that conclusion you may ask.  I mean, with a very similar offense, they were 52-51 last year on July 28th and trailed in the AL Central by only 1.5 games before going 24-35 the rest of the season.

So, why do I think the Guardians will have their first 100 loss season since 1991?  Let’s dive in:

HISTORY

The Guardians were 52-51 on July 28^th, 2023.  They went 24-35 the rest of the way with the same cast of characters, essentially, that they have now.  If you assume that is about 1/3 of the season it is not unreasonable that they will end up with 100+ losses this year if everything plays out, on average, the same and they don’t have any significantly positive changes in performance and with the loss of Francona.

Looking back at some past 100+ loss seasons here is what I found:

• 1991 (105 losses) – For hitters the Guardians had Brook Jacoby, Carlos Baerga, Albert Belle, Mark Whiten.  Their rotation included Swindell, Nagy and Candiotti.  They had a bullpen by committee with Olin, Hillegas and Doug Jones getting 7 or more saves and Jesse Orosco also present. Note, however, that Jim Thome and Sandy Alomar only got bit parts in this season with much bigger roles starting the next year (cough! DeLauter & Manzardo.  Cough!)
• 1987 - for hitters they had Joe Carter (32 HRs, 31 SBs), Brook Jacoby (.300, 32 HRs), Julio Franco (.319, 32 SB), Mel Hall (18 HRs, .280), Brett Butler (.295, 33 SB), Cory Snyder (33 HRs) and Pat Tabler (.307, 11 HRs).  The rotation included: Candiotti, Ken Schrom, Phil Niekro, Steve Carlton and Greg Swindell, with Niekro and Carlton in their 40s.  Doug Jones was in the bullpen but only had 8 saves which led the club.

While each year is different, you can see, even with good players, how easily a team can put up a 100+ loss season.  BTW, there was a managerial chance in the middle of each of these seasons. Which brings me to my next topic.

MANAGING

 Steven Vogt is a rookie manager, one year removed from being a player.  Is he a good choice for the long-term manager of the Guardians?  It appears so.  But we know how rookie managers can fare.  Look at Francona.  He started managing in the majors at 38 years old, inheriting a losing team (65-97 the year before he arrived).  In his first 4 years of managing (Philadelphia) his teams were 68-94, 75-87, 77-85 and 65-97, before he was fired.   Basically, even the best managers generally take some time to ‘cook’ before they start producing, especially when they inherit a losing team.  Plus the vibes I get (especially what the bench coach, Craig Albernaiz said when asked about Vogt) tell me that Vogt is going to be in a learning mode which will, no doubt, cost us games.  It’s just inevitable, in my opinion.

COACHING

The upside is that the best of our coaches (Alomar, Willis) are back this year.  I don’t mean to rip on Barnett, but it HAS to be an upside that we have a different guy in charge of replay challenges.  Barnett was terrible and cost us countless challenges, both from challenging and, especially, NOT challenging.  I hope it is MUCH better this year as I hope the Guardians finally took this position seriously and brought in someone who could handle the pressure and speed of that job.  That would seem to me to be a pretty easy thing to recruit/test for.  The downside is that Chris Valaika is still here.  Now, I have ZERO idea whether Valaika is a good hitting coach.  What I am 100% sure of is that he is NOT a good hitting coach for the players on this team.  As in all teaching, it is not just how much you know about the subject but, rather, how you can communicate it to a group of people who all have different learning styles AND how successful those people are in the subject you are teaching.  With the Cleveland Guardians, Chris Valaika is just NOT a good hitting coach.

PLAYERS

GENERAL - The stated goal of this team is to try to win while, at the same time, letting the young players play so we can decide which ones are keepers and which ones aren’t.  The RESULT of that strategy is that we didn’t spend any money by buying free agents to fill holes on our team.  As a prospect geek, I absolutely LOVE that strategy.  However, you have to walk the walk.  When they signed Hedges I was sort of OK with the cost as he could provide valuable tutelage to Bo Naylor and David Fry AND help our pitchers maximize their success.  He showed how valuable he can be to rebuilding (Pittsburgh) and competing (Texas) teams in terms of being a positive influence and getting the most wins possible out of a pitching staff.  Sooooo, while I didn’t like the expense in light of us not going after other free agents, I was OK with it. Where the wheels came off for me was giving Laureano $5.1 MM.  We had so many young outfielders ready for their first ML shot who could provide power that it made and still makes ZERO sense to me, especially since we began the off-season by doing a salary dump with Quantrill and trading Enyel De Los Santos for Craig Barlow, with CA telling us that we couldn’t have obtained Barlow without off-loading roughly the equal amount of salary.  Then we drop $5.1 MM on a journeyman Ofer who hasn’t really had a good year since 2019.  The worst part is that the Guardians, in need of power, failed to roll the dice with DeLauter and Manzardo out of spring training while keeping Florial.  This appears to be a service time manipulation ploy under the guise of getting these guys more experience to make sure they ready while other teams who are, on paper, better than the Guardians (San Diego – Jackson Merrill, Texas – Wyatt Langford) are giving their young players spots on their opening day rosters.   So, basically, the FO is talking out of both sides of their mouths.

INDIVIDUAL PLAYERS – But, as always, it comes down to the players.  It did for Francona in Philadelphia and it should for the Guardians.  The Cardinals' Ollie Marmol and, before him are good examples.   If inexperienced managers have good players the manager and coaches are under less pressure to do what Francona did every year here: pull a rabbit out of a hat and get more production out of the team than their individual stats would suggest was possible.  So, if the players perform to the FO expectations (or wild hopes, actually) the Guardians should be OK.  I don’t think that is going to happen and to understand my thought process, let’s look at how I think every player on the opening day roster (and IL, after they are activated) will perform:

Steven Kwan – The FO expects Kwan to have a bounce-back season this year and I think he will.  I think he will hit close to .300 while doubling his HR total and increasing his XBH total by 20% while stealing the same number of bases and playing excellent defense in LF.

Andres Gimenez – Ditto with the FO thoughts on AG reverting to his 2022 form.  Unfortunately, I see Gimenez performing more like his 2023 numbers than his 2022 numbers.  I think his RBI total will go up but what I saw in ST made me think he hasn’t made the adjustments necessary to go back to his 2022 form.  Still will play great defense but looking at .260, 15 HRs, 70 RBI, 35 BB stats.  A little better but not enough to move the needle on this offense.

Jose Ramirez – Still a great player but he just tried to do too much last year, swinging at numerous pitches (especially low and inside, some almost hitting him in the knee) when it was obvious that the other team was just pitching around him.  He will continue to try to do too much this year and I don’t see his stats improving at all.

Josh Naylor – I think he will be essentially the same player this year as he was last year,  except that he will hit 20+ HRs.  He will be the solid part of this offense but last year will be remembered as close to his peak performance which I am sure he will maintain for the next 4-5 years of his career.  But to ask him to become any more is likely not going to happen.

Brayan Rocchio – Here is the one wildcard.  THE guy on the opening day roster who can make the team that starts this year much better than the team that ended last year.  He could have a year like Kwan did in 2022 plus maybe a few more HRs.  If he does that and plays just solid defense he improves this offense a lot.  If he looks like he did last year, then he adds nothing to this team as his defense is not as good as Arias’ and he likely won’t show the power Arias did last year. 

Estevan Florial/Tyler Freeman – The ABs we waste on Florial will come to haunt this team early in terms of W/L record, making a deeper hole we would have to climb out of just to be competitive in the AL Central.  Florial doesn’t offer anything to this team on offense over Straw and is inferior defensively.  Freeman is better than Straw offensively but in the games I saw he was inferior defensively and wasn’t really challenged like he will be when ML hitters are rifling balls in his direction for 9 innings instead of the first 4-5 as is the case in spring training.  We were so used to Straw running balls down that this year average defense in CF will look inferior and, yes, will cause us to lose games where last year’s great catches will turn into doubles and triples this year.

Will Brennan/Ramon Laureano – Frankly, Brennan has to be the guy he was in 2022 in Columbus to help this team.  Laureano has to be the guy he was in 2019.  I doubt either happens although maybe the platoon can give us better overall production than we he had out of RF last year.  Yes, I think this could work to make RF better than it was in 2023 while keeping the same defense.  But, unless Brennan & Laureano return to their career-peak forms, it won’t be enough to move the needle on our W/L record.

Bo Naylor/Austin Hedges/David Fry – Clearly this catching combo will give us more production than we had last year during the first half of last year.  That, alone, could take the pressure off of the big bats and, along from a stellar season by Rocchio, propel us to a winning record.  I just think it is too much to ask but, hey, it might work to impact our record if everything clicks.

Arias – The one guy left on the bench, I think Arias could thrive if he embraces that role.  His hitting this spring is no better than last year so, frankly, I think this is the place where he can do the least damage to this offense while still being an above average offensive utility guy who can play any position on the field except for catcher and pitcher.

Bieber – I think he is such a smart pitcher he will keep his head above water.  If he can keep it at a high level for the season up to the trade deadline I think we will be in the race.  It is just a lot to ask for him to be the ace he once was, even in his walk year.  That is what he will need to be with our offense for him to make a difference.  I just don’t see that he has that in him and I expect him to be about 6-10 when we finally trade him at the deadline, most of those losses not being from bad pitching.  That’s if he stays healthy which is a HUGE ‘if’ at this point.

McKenzie – The stuff is there but his FB velocity and command is still off and he is relying on his breaking balls too much.  This is a recipe for him breaking down early in the season and I think that is the likely outcome.  If he can maintain great stuff and be the 2022 version of himself well, now we’re talking.  Just don’t see that happening as the lack of offense will put too much pressure on our pitchers to be perfect.  With his current stuff, McKenzie is far from perfect.

Bibee – He was #2 in the ROY balloting last year.  IF you can get equal performance this year it will be great.  I think expecting him to improve is out of the question and some regression is a good possibility.  He would still be really good if he regresses but the lack of offense makes really good mean a .500 or a tad below record…and its all about the record, isn’t it?

Williams – I think the Guardians minimize the severity of injuries to their pitchers.  A small injury becomes larger with time and, at the end, a guy misses all or most of the season, mainly to keep the fan base from losing interest.  However, if Williams would beat the Guardians’ propaganda of lies and actually make it back, fully healthy, early this season, he could be the one pitcher who performs at a higher level than expected and be a difference maker.  I could easily see him going 13-8 and push for an all-star slot if he gets healthy early and stays healthy.  But if he stays on the IL, it is just another nail in the coffin of this season.

Allen – Logan Allen is a 5^th starter on a good team.  That’s all he is.  Maybe one of the best 5^th starters in the AL but not a difference makere.  If he could go .500 while the other starting pitchers stay healthy and excel, that would be the recipe for success.  I just think he is performing at his peak level, maybe ever, right now and he can’t be expected to do more than tread water, which is fine if everyone above you is killing it.

Carrasco – Wouldn’t it be great if Carrasco wins the comeback player of the year award?  It would be a great story and I hope it happens.  But a 37-year old coming off a terrible age-36 season is likely to be a hole plugger.  If he is a great hole plugger his performance would be interchangeable with that of Williams but I can’t see that happening.  He is more like McKenzie, in that even when he is good he won’t be good enough to be above .500 with this offense.  But McKenzie has a shot at being great and I don’t think Carrasco can even be as good as Logan Allen at this point in his career.  Not bad, maybe a great trade chip at the deadline, but not a difference maker here.

Clase – I think this year will look a lot like last year.  He doesn’t seem to have the ability to ramp it up in a close game.  He is good.  He knows how to close.  But he doesn’t have that next gear in a 1-run game like the best of the best closers do.  So his performance this year will likely be much like it was last year which is good enough on a good team but not with a team with this offense.

Barlow – He is what he is.  If he pitches like he did in KC last year he will be great.  Unfortunately, he is now not ADDED to Stephan, he is REPLACING Stephan, meaning that having him doesn’t move the needle in a positive direction this year.  It, at best (meaning KC production and not Padres production) means we are treading water.

Morgan – I think Morgan will be just fine and his stats will look the same as last year, which doesn’t help us improve this year. But we don’t have anyone to replace him with who will do better.

Sandlin – See Morgan.  He will be just fine but what he gave us last season is the best we will ever see from Sandlin so he won’t move the needle this year, just like Morgan won’t.

Hentges – Did I mention that I think the Guardians minimize the severity of injuries to avoid fans being discouraged with the team's chances?  If Hentges can come back he will, like Sandlin and Morgan, be similar to last year, meaning he won’t move the needle but, in his case, being left-handed, he is even less expendable than Morgan and Sandlin.  If Hentges is on the IL for a long time, it will mean a net negative for the bullpen and this team can afford few, if any, net negatives from last year’s performances.

Herrin – Herrin has a chance to be much better.  He has the stuff and size to do it.  So far this year he looks like the Herrin of last year who is a major league middle reliever.  If he stays that way this year, he doesn’t move the needle for the Guardians.

Gaddis – The one guy who looks like he could move into an 8^th inning role.  I think he will be HUGELY better than last year if he stays healthy and will be the one returning guy who could be better. 

Curry – He is a swiss army knife.  I think his stuff plays all the way from an opener to a closer, but I don’t see him upping his performance over last year so, at best, he is a net neutral compared to last year.

Beede – The wildcard in this mix can he be a great, shutdown reliever?  If so, great, if he is Daniel Norris, then, well, he won’t improve this team’s record.  As a starter, he is south of Carrasco and that won’t move the needle at all.

Cade Smith – With luck, he could be a part-time setup man this year.  Most likely, his stuff will allow his rookie year to produce results like a pedestrian veteran middle reliever like Sandlin.  If so, he won’t move the needle.  The worst part is there are rumblings they may bring in a veteran to take his bullpen spot, sending Smith back to AAA.  This would hinder his development and what is even worse it would likely cause us to have to DFA someone as the 40-man is now full.  Giving that the most vulnerable guys on the roster after Lively and Florial are JRod and Noel, that unnecessary acquistion could be a real disaster.

Lively – Never understood this signing and he is, to me, only a factor if we need to soak up a lot of innings…like on a rebuilding team limping through the season.  So, a non-factor in a competitive season.

Minor Leaguers – Ahh, the X-factor.  Guys coming up and providing a spark, putting this team over the top.  Well, I go on record now saying that if they bring DeLauter and/or Manzardo up later this year (say June or beyond) this year they are idiots.  If these are not there at the beginning of the season we lose the ROY compensation possibility while still possibly losing the year of service their service time manipulation is supposed to help with.  If they are not up by the end of May this season will likely be snowballing to such an extent that it won’t change the outcome but MIGHT cause us to lose service time control if one of them finishes in the top 3 in ROY voting.  Will other rookies come up and provide hope for next year?  Absolutely, positively, freakin’ happening this year.  I predict that we will have a number of guys like that and, hopefully, will obtain more at the deadline like we did with Manzardo last year.  It won’t help the 2024 season in terms of competitiveness to make the playoffs but it will definitely put us into a better spot for 2025 with more legitimate options.  Note, however, that if this happens we will likely have to DFA prospects to clear roster spots.  THAT will be painful as it is likely guys like Noel and JRod who could be casualties. 

 

SUMMARY

Looking at this roster, I don’t really see ANY player(s) making the huge leap that we need on offense.  Small improvements are great but won’t cut it when trying to be competitive.   Add to that how badly we finished last year and any disasters in the starting pitching or with Clase means disastrous results. 

I think, given last year and the injury history of some of these guys and the overall disappointment, pressure and weight of losing after all those years of winning under Francona, will lead us to a 100+ loss season.  We ended last year 24-35.  It is not hard to believe that if we continue to play that way we would end up 61-101.

And that is my prediction.  The only good that is likely to come out of this season is if we sign Josh Naylor to an extension, sort out our prospects heading into the off-season so we know who to trade, come out of this year healthy, make great trades at the deadline, have a great 2024 draft and, from our bad record this year, get the #1 overall draft slot in 2025. 

So, you are all free to bookmark this blog post and rag on me after the season.  Trust me, I will WELCOME that banter because it will mean I am very wrong about this season.