Where Do We Go From Here - Overall and Position by Postion for 2011

It's time to look ahead.  Right now this franchise may be in more trouble than we ever have been!

Clearly, the entire 2011 season rests on two knees, one belonging to Grady Sizemore and one belonging to Carlos Santana.   Without the two of them healthy we have no chance of winning and, with Sizemore, he has to come back even if the other 23 pieces to the roster puzzle don't come into alignment, just so that we can get maximum trade value out of him if we can't re-sign him to a reasonable multiyear deal. 

Let's assume, however, that these guys come back strong just so that we can continue this discussion.  So how does the rest of the 25 man roster look for next year.  First up is starting pitching:

Starting pitching

Here we go 9 deep going into spring training (much deeper by mid-season) and, given how injuries go, we will need it:

Fausto Carmona: Is Fausto really growing as a player?  This year will tell.   My hope is that he is and, with his stuff, he should be able to dominate.  He needs to be a weak (top 15-30 starting pitcher in the AL) #1 starter for us to have a chance.

Carlos Carrasco:  To me it is puzzling that people upside him as a #4-5.  I think his upside is as a #2-3 and he needs to at least be a #3 this year for us to be successful.  DEFINITELY he has to reach that or a middling #2 for us to be competitive in future years.

Justin Masterson:  Here, in my opinion, is the biggest lock of all of our starters.  Justin is really fortunate that he was traded here.  Cleveland is one of the few places where he could be on a team that has a true chance to be competitive in a couple of years AND that he gets the time to work through the transition back to being a starter.  I think he will shine by the end of the first 3 months of the ML season in 2011, which he needs to do not to be sent back to the bullpen.  The latter would be a mistake as we have plenty of Justin Masterson types in our system.  Maybe not quite as good but, IMHO, major league quality set up men nevertheless.

Mitch Talbot:  Here is the guy I think will disappear relatively quickly.  I think his stuff doesn't play up at all and, in trying to make it play up as big as it needs to even to be a weak #4 or a strong #5, he will end up hurting himself.  I think that people need to NOT count on him for anything in 2011 or beyond.

David Huff:  I still believe in him.  I think we need for him to come through to help balance the rightsidedness of this rotation.  He was a mess in 2010.  I don't know why as I am not an expert in pitching mechanics.  The stuff appears to still be there but the command has gone away.  I will write it off to the sophomore jinx andpredict, if healthy, he will be better than his rookie season and be a solid #3 or good #4 starter here.

Other options/long relievers/AAA depth:

Aaron Laffey:  I think to count on him for 160 innings is crazy.  He should be a long reliever/spot starter who can give you some starts in the middle of the season once his stamina is built up...and THAT is if he is even healthy, which, after the end of last year, is questionable.

Josh Tomlin:   The righthanded Laffey but with more durability, he is a poor team's #5 starter, a guy who can give you some innings and an occasional good start, but not much more.  As a swingman in the bullpen (long/middle relief) he could be much more valuable.

Jeanmar Gomez: Another guy who can give you innings but not much more at this point, he needs more seasoning but may end up in the rotation by default.  If we can't muster a competitive team this year, there are worse things than giving Jeanmar on-the-job-training.

Zach McAllister:  Another guy like Gomez and Tomlin - someone who is durable but doesn't have stuff that screams #3-4 ML starter, the only difference with him and Tomlin/Laffey is I don't see McAllister in any relief role.  He is ML depth and a probable anchor of the AAA roster for at least half a season, much like Carrasco last year.

Also in consideration at some time during 2011:

Paolo Espino: Assuming he survives the Rule 5 draft (not a sure thing) he provides quality depth and, given how the rest of the rotation looks, if he remains healthy and performs at any reasonable level, he will make his ML debut in 2011.  I would start him off in the bullpen if I am the Indians as his relatively diminutive size plays up more as a reliever (see David Riske).

Yohan Pino:  If he re-signs with us, just based on persistence and being in the right place at the right time, he could be one of I am sure dozens of AAAA guys who could get a chance for a ML cup of coffee or a little more if injuries strike in 2011.  He is good ML depth at AAA but not a long-term answer to anything except "Who did we get when we traded Carl Pavano?".

Corey Kluber:  I vote him most likely to crash and burn in 2011.  His numbers after the trade to Cleveland were beyond pathetic (WHIP of 1.82 in Aktron, 1.45 in Columbus).  He, to me, rates lower in potential than any of the above EXCEPT for Pino, and that is not a good thing.  Nevertheless, the FO likes him and if he is breathing and putting up Jeanmar Gomez 2010 AAA numbers (5.00 ERA with flashes of brilliance), he could get a shot at any point in the second half of 2011 if we are non-competitive.

Scott Barnes: Given that he is left-handed, breathing and in a system devoid of much left-handed starting pitching AND with his AFL numbers this fall, he is a mid-season option, as well.

Alex White: A mid-season possibility but I hope not.  Unless we are in competition and need his arm and there are no other options available, why rush him, start his arbitration clock, etc.

Drew Pomeranz:  Yeah, he may go all Mike Leake on us and be in the majors with little or no minor league experience but, with his past command issues, I think we give him time in the minors and don't turn him into the next Jeremy Guthrie, who was on the 40-man roster about two years too early...something I said at the time about his ML deal.  Looks good on paper to get an experienced college pitcher into the majors but, more often than not (see Steve Dunning for a blast from the past example) it doesn't work out.

Hector Rondon, Jeremy Sowers, .Kelvin de la Cruz , Matt Packer, Joe Gardner:   None of these guys, due to inexperience, injury or poor ability to perform, look like they will make it to Cleveland in 2011.  However, if all the stars align for them, any of these guys could get ML time this coming year in Cleveland.

The Bullpen

I'll start off by saying that the bullpen is the most difficult area for ANY team to predict, especially teams with young closers.  Relievers tend to go in cycles but, for the most part, quality, young relievers who the league has not yet gotten a book on tend to be pretty effective.  That being said, the Indians have a chance to have a good bullpen this year, a really good bullpen.  Let's talk about how this may shape up:

Closer - Chris Perez
Setup men - Tony Sipp, Rafael Perez
6th/7th inning guys -  three of Frank Herrmann, Jensen Lewis, Josh Judy, Joe Smith, Justin Germano, Vinnie Pestano
Long man/spot starter - Josh Tomlin or Aaron Laffey

AAA Depth: Jess Todd, Zach Putnam, Paulo Espino, Bryce Stowell, Alex White and two of the 6th/7th inning guys who don't make it and maybe one of the long men.

Lower level depth: Eric Berger, Connor Graham, Chen Lee, Bryan Price, Rob Bryson, Jason Knapp

This group of 20 guys provides excellent depth for a 7 man bullpen.  Given that all of the lower level depth guys have very little, if any, AAA experience, the 14 guys ahead of them provide these guys time to develop in AA and AAA in anticipation of maybe being needed by mid-season.

Even though I favor dumping Joe Smith and Germano in the right deal, keeping them makes sense as it cushions the intro to ML baseball for the younger guys.

Yes, this bullpen will be young but, historically, the element of surprise (from the league never seeing a young pitcher) in the bullpen has been very effective.  Let's hope it is for us, as well.

Catching

This is the most solidified position for 2011.  If Carlos Santana is healthy, he starts.  If Lou Marson is healthy, he backs up.  If one of those guys is injured, Luke Carlin will back up whoever starts.  If two of those guys can't go we're in deep do-do.  There are absolutely no catching prospects in the entire organization higher than Kinston and the ones at Kinston and lower are really, really questionable.  They could use one of their AAAA catchers in a pinch or maybe use Matt McBride, who came up as a catcher, in a pinch.  But losing Chirs Gimenez and, I think, Wyatt Toregas, really hurts as they lost ML catching depth.
So, look for the Indians to sign a minor league catcher although that would be a difficult sell to someone as they might only be the backup or split time at AAA due to Carlin's presence.   Greg Zaun (how old is he?) and Ronny Paulino (suspended for 50 games in August due to PED use) make some sense but, as MLers with lots of experience, might be tough signs and will come in very expensive compared to a typical minor leaguer.  Still, Chris Antonetti and Mark Shapiro have to feel very uncomfortable right now with their ML depth in catching.  Heck, Roberto Perez is next in line, in my opinion, right now after Carlin and he played at low A Lake County last year.

Infield

 Here is where it gets interesting.  We either have too many guys or zero guys at every position but SS, and there we are already set.

Third base: At this position we look like a typical rebuilding team.  We have AAAA guys (Nix, Joel Hanrahan) and inexperienced guys (Jason Donald, Cord Phelps and Jason Kipnis) and not- or quesitionably-ready minor leaguers (Lonnie Chisenhall, Jared Goedert).  This one position will be, IMHO, the most boring for the Indians this year...and the most pathetic, assuming Carlos Santana is completely healthy by the start of the season.  That the Indians are even talking to Nick Punto because they might have to move Donald or Nix to 3B shows you the pathetic state of this position.  Our big hope is that Goedert can hold the fort until and IF Chisenhall gets here.  Unless he is a total hack I would give Goedert the job with Nix as the fallback option.  That's what a rebuilding team would do as Nix is the classic AAAA player who flashes just enough that he will sucker team after team into giving him another opportunity only to find, every time, that he is a AAAA guy who gets hot once in a while and flashes above average power for a middle infielder, but not much else in the five common tools.

Shortstop:  Interestingly, a year ago we all thought we were set for several years.  However, from what I have read, the Indians appear to not be sold on ACab any more.  That being said, Mr. Cabrera will be the starting SS and his backups will be Jason Donald, Punto if he signs (I hope not) and, if he somehow survives the Rule 5, Josh Rodriguez as ML depth in AAA.  After that we are thin but, as you all know, ML depth in AAAA shortstops is available for pennies in the minor league free agent market.  Look for the Indians to sign 1-2 of these guys as they tend to be OK, especially the Latin players, to play even as low as AA or high A as they wait their next ML injury-driven opportunity.

Second base: There are so many options here it is amazing.  Jason Donald, Jayson Nix, Cord Phelps, Jason Kipnis and, of course, the scary Luis Valbuena.  Out of this group will come our ML starter, a backup and 1-2 AAA depth guys, either of whom could step in by June 1st to be the full-time starter at 2B...possibly with one of the others being DFA'd or thrown to the curb emotionally, at that point.

First base:  Again, an embarassment of riches.  Matt LaPorta and Jordan Brown in the majors, Matt McBride and Jared Goedert in AAA.  We are set here for the foreseeable future.  Plus, there's always Travis Hafner in a pinch and Wes Hodges and Beau Mills as minor league depth.

Outfield

Assuming Grady Sizemore is healthy, we are set in the majors with 5 outfielders: Sizemore, Choo, Brantley, Shelley Duncan and Crowe.  Jordan Brown will probably also get some time out there and, in the minors, we have Matt McBride.  Jared Goedert will get time out there.  McBride and Goedert are ML depth as is Nick Weglarz who, if he stays healthy, may be ready by July.  Ezequiel Carrera provides depth in CF but no power at all (he is the ultimate slap hitter), even less than Brantley.  The problem with this arrangement is that there is no depth in RF and an overabundance of LFers, including a number with no power at all.  Most AL teams want power out of their LFers.  Sizemore is the only true centerfielder although Brantley and even Crowe can play there, albeit much less effectively and with no power and Carrera is adequate minor league depth.  All three of our current ML CF options have rag arms making our lack of RF depth particularly alarming if Choo would go down.  Teams could then almost run on the the Indians' outfield at will.  Given that if Santana catches our opponents will probably be able to steal bases at a more than average pace, this could add extra pressure to the pitching staff to be very effective or you could see a lot of "1" innings for opponents where they manufacture runs, nickeling and diming us into 4 to 5 runs a game even without the benefit of a big inning.  .

Summary

The Indians are surprisingly set for spring training with adequate bodies at most positions.  Their gaping hole is at 3B and I hope to heck they don't trade some excess talent OR overspend on a mediocre free agent just to do a temporary fill at that position until Chisenhall gets there.  As always, I would like to trade that excess talent for another team's excess talent.   Our long-term question marks are in RF and maybe starting pitching with an additional question mark at 3B if we assume that Chisenhall is not a sure thing.  As always, we could use more starting pitching in the mid- to high-minors.  We have depth at 1B, LF and in the bullpen that we could trade.  If we trade, we should 'trade down' meaning we trade major league and AAA talent for a couple of stud AA guys who might be ready in a year or two.

Wheeling and Dealing: Where are the Indians?

It is hard to believe, on consecutive days, the Marlins traded Andrew Miller, Cameron Maybin and Dan Uggla...and all they got back were some relievers (one an Indians' giveaway, Edwin Mujica) and a utility infielder.    Besides the fact that that they might have packaged these guys to get something better, what would it have taken for the Indians to get these three?

Jason Donald, Jensen Lewis (or maybe Joe Smith), Josh Judy and Rafael Perez might have done it.  Would that have been too much or too little to pay for these three guys? 

Well, the Indians didn't have a lot of payroll and, frankly, Maybin wasn't needed IF Sizeomore is healthy (a big IF) and Miller isn't any great shakes, but what about Uggla?  He could have solidified this offense for a year and netted us two top draft picks next year.   And something about Maybin reminds me of Joe Carter who only needed a change of scenery and lots of reps on a rebuilding team to change from his dismal performance in Chicago to blossoming in Cleveland and then Toronto.  I might have taken a shot at Maybin just because you have a reasonable downside and superstar upside, acquired for not much in terms of needed parts.  Miller?  I would have taken him to try to catch lightning in a bottle.  When you are a rebuilding, small market team, you take those chances.

The point is: would the Indians have given up that much?  Donald is a utility guy.  Lewis and Perez, at different times, have been on the outs with this organization and Judy is an untested rookie.  The Indians would have given up spare parts to get Uggla, Maybin and Miller, the latter two of whom could have been spun off if needed.

A lot of fans from all over baseball are scratching their heads on the small returns for these guys.  I am sure the Marlins fans are thinking they were robbed and, in terms of rebuilding this team, they were. 

Time will tell but these three trades may have really hampered the Marlins for the next few years, not because of the guys they gave up but because of the guys who came back, none of whom are the kind that you want to rebuild a franchise around.   

Well, it's just a pipedream.  The Indians didn't want to add salary and Uggla would have cost a bundle.  But, nevertheless, to get 3 'names' like this on the cheap (in terms of talent given up)....it's hard to pass up, even with the increased payroll. 

40-man roster recap

The Indians made their 40-man roster decisions today, filling up their roster to the max with 5 new players, all of whom were Rule 5-eligible.

Let's do a quick analysis of the guys currently on the roster:

Overall comments:  Rebuilding teams don't carry deadwood on their roster, especially with the deepest farm system in baseball.  The Indians, after today, are carrying at least 5 guys who have proven themselves to be fringe major leagues/AAAA players.  If a team is non-competitive next year, why do you need a Shelly Duncan or Justin Germano taking reps away from real prospects who have to be evaluated?  If the team is competitive, why does it need AAAA guys?  That is why guys like Duncan and Germano are minor league FA insurance policies, not 40-man roster cloggers.  Any one of two of our 5 deadwood guys below can easily be DFA'd is we sign a significant FA in their area.  However, all of them are taking valuable roster spots from prospects who have some life left in them.  We made a lot of headway in getting propsects on this roster.  Be thankful for that.   Still, we have some real exposure in the Rule 5 this year.  Whether we lose a guy, who knows?  But the exposure with guys who fit the Rule 5 profile, is significant.  We are a rebuilding club.  We have deadwood on the roster.  This exposure was unnecessary.

Deadwood still present: Shelly Duncan, Justin Germano, Joe Smith, Luis Valbuena, Ezequiel Carerra

Comments: I would have cut Duncan and traded the other 4 but that may still happen down the road.  Duncan is a AAAA guy.  Leaving him on the roster exposes guys like Josh Rodriguez and Matt McBride, among others, to the Rule 5 draft.  Rebuilding teams don't risk their prospects, no matter what level you think Rodriguez and McBride are, for Shelly Duncan.  I would rather see Rodriguez and McBride fighting for ML ABs next year.  While that is still possible, both have to make it through the Rule 5 draft and my suspicion is that one or both of them will be lost, especially Rodriguez.  I would have also cut Valbuena.  When you consider that Rodriguez has not blown his chance and Valbuena continues to spiral, how can a rebuilding team keep Valbuena when Rodriguez brings everything defensively that Valbuena brings PLUS some offensive upside.  I am OK with Germano and Carrera.  Both of them, and even Valbuena, can be DFA'd if we sign someone who needs their roster spot.  Still, Rodriguez should be on this roster and Smith traded. 

As I said, I would have traded Smith.  ROOGYs are a luxury that a small market, rebuilding club cannot afford.  Plus, he is a roster clogger. 

Newbies:McAllister, Kluber, Judy, Goedert, Hagadone

Comments:  You know, when you make a bad trade like we did with Westbrook, rostering a guy like Kluber, who gave up 38 hits and 10 walks in 26 innings after the trade, is just piling stupidity onto stupidity.  As predicted on another site, though, when Mark Shapiro mentions you in PR material, you are going to be rostered.  Let's see in 3 years whether Kluber or Josh Rodriguez should have been rostered or, even more appropriate, how Paulo Espino does.  Espino has a chance to be drafted in the Rule 5 and used as we used Ambriz last year.  Espino is a shortish righty but he has enough stuff to get righthanded hitters out in the pros.

Significant non-additions:  Adam Miller, Paulo Espino, Josh Rodriguez, Matt McBride, Jerad Head, John Drennen, Beau Mills, Connor Graham and Wes Hodges.

Comments: Obviously all these guys are now Rule 5 eligible.  Twenty years of following the Rule 5 draft tells me this about predicting it: It's totally unpredictable.  However, I would much rather have Miller, Espino and Rodriguez on our roster than some of the deadwood above.  McBride and Head may be safe and, right now, Mills, Drennen, Graham and Hodges do not fit the mold of guys selected in the Rule 5 draft.  Unfortunately, Miller, Espino (as a 6th inning guy) and Rodriguez MORE than fit that mold.  Even though I can't predict the Rule 5 with any accuracy, my suspicion is that all of Miller, Espino and Rodriguez get drafted.  Don't think McBride or Head will but if a team sees them as a good utility guy who can catch in an emergency, they may get popped, too.

Indians Top 100 prospects

OK, there won't be any suspense leading up to book selling here.  My top 60 Indians prospects read like this (I'll add on the next 40 for an even top 100 and make updates after we move through the Rule 5 draft).  Let me say this.  This was one of the toughest lists ever to put together.  So many guys with top 20 prospect (on this list) upside but so few having strung together more than one year of solid performance and some of them, like a number of our highly rated draft choices this year, all projection.  This list could change WEEKLY next season, based on which of these guys step up to become top prospects.  The first 60, at least, all have that potential!  It's a good place to be because you have a lot of options and depth so not all of the guys have to make it and a bad place to be because, when you have a lot of Beau Mills-type prospects on your prospect list, you could end up with nothing..
UPDATE 1: NOVEMBER 5TH: Removed Carlos Rivero since he was lost on waivers.
UPDATE 2: NOVEMBER 17TH: I've flagged the guys and their position in BA's top 10

1. Jason Kipnis (#3 on BA Indians' top 10)
2. Drew Pomeranz (#4 on BA Indians' top 10)
3. Lonnie Chisenhall (#1 on BA Indians' top 10)
4. Alex White (#2 on BA Indians' top 10)
5. LaVon Washington (#7 of BA Indians' top 10)
6. Jason Knapp (#6 on BA Indians' top 10)
7. Nick Weglarz (#5 on BA Indians' top 10)
8. Nick Hagadone (#10 on BA Indians' top 10)
9. Jordan Brown
10. Cord Phelps
11. Kyle Blair
12. Bryce Stowell
13. Vinnie Pestano
14. Joe Gardner (#9 on BA Indians' top 10)
15. Josh Judy
16. Hector Rondon
17. Rob Bryson
18. Robbie Aviles
19. Juan Diaz
20.  Zach Putnam
21. Tony Wolters (#8 on BA Indians' top 10)
22. Josh Rodriguez
23. Jordan Henry
24. Tyler Holt
25. TJ House
26. Kelvin De La Cruz
27. Austin Adams
28. Chun Chen
29. Paulo Espino
30. Jared Goedert.
31. Cole Cook
32. Alexander Perez
33. Zach McAllister
34. Matt McBride
35. Alex Lavisky
36. Ezequiel Carrera
37. Jess Todd
38. Scott Barnes
39. Felix Sterling
40. Adam Miller
41. Jerad Head
42. Matt Packer
43. Clayton Cook
44. TJ McFarland
45. Chris Jones
46. Eric Berger
47. Michael Goodnight
48. Tony Dischler
49. Roberto Perez
50. Beau Mills
51. Tyler Sturdevant
52. Cory Burns
53. Abner Abreu
54. Trey Haley
55. Bryan Price
56.. Chen Lee
57. Bo Greenwell
58. Corey Kluber
59. Jordan Cooper
60. Nick Bartolone

It's 40-man roster time

Ok, its November, the WS is over, and it's time to fill the 40-man roster.  Today we will analyze what the Indians will do.

Here is how the Indians should populate their 40-man roster and who should be removed and added and who should stay (NOTE: The Indians have already made several moves, all of which I would have made, to remove guys from their roster; TODAY THEY MADE MORE: SEE ALL CAPS BELOW):

Pitchers (20 including adding 5 and removing 2 in addition to the 2 already removed) :
Nick Hagadone (add)
Paulo Espino (add)
Josh Judy (add)
Vinnie Pestano (current)
Josh Tomlin (current)
Frank Herrmann (current)
Jeanmar Gomez (current)
Fausto Carmona (current)
Carlos Carrasco (current)
Chris Perez (current)
David Huff (current)
Jensen Lewis (current)
Justin Masterson (current)
Rafael Perez (current)
Tony Sipp (current)
Hector Rondon (current)
Mitch Talbot (current)
Jess Todd (current)
Aaron Laffey (current - hold spot for acquistion of starting pitcher)
Zach McAllister (add)

Joe Smith (trade or remove)
Justin Germano (trade or remove)
Anthony Reyes (already removed)
Hector Ambriz (already removed)

Catchers (2):
Carlos Santana
Lou Marson

Luke Carlin (already removed)
Chris Gimenez (already removed)

Infielders: (8, including 3 added and 4 removed)
Matt LaPorta (current)
Asdrubal Cabrera (current)
Jason Donald (current)
Luis Valbuena (current - keep until sign 3B stopgap)
Josh Rodriguez (add)
Jerad Head (add)
Jared Goedert (add)
Jayson Nix (keep as roster insurance)

Wes Hodges (remove) NOTE: HE WAS REMOVED
Carlos Rivero (remove) NOTE: HE WAS REMOVED
Drew Sutton (remove) NOTE: HE WAS REMOVED
Andy Marte (remove) NOTE: HE WAS REMOVED

Outfielders: (7 - add none, remove 2)
Grady Sizemore (current)
Michael Brantley (current)
Jordan Brown (current)
Shin-Soo Choo (current)
Trevor Crowe (current)
Nick Weglarz (current)
Ezequiel Carrera (current - hold if need a roster spot)

Chad Huffman (remove) NOTE: HE WAS REMOVED
Shelley Duncan (remove)

Designated Hitter (1)
Travis Hafner

That gives us 38 and allows us some flexibility if we want to add someone in the Rule 5 draft AND we have some flexibility (Valbuena and Laffey) if we add a starting pitcher and stop-gap thirdbaseman.  At the same time, we remove dead wood from the roster and protect "B" prospects who might not be better than the deadwood, but who deserve a chance to show what they have.

The significant guys who become Rule 5 eligible from these moves are: Rivero (LOST ON WAIVERS TO PHILLY, HEY, YOU CAN'T WAIT FOREVER FOR A GUY TO DEVELOP), Matt McBride, Connor Graham, Adam Miller, Ambriz.

The guys who can become  minor league free agents from this are: Huffman, Duncan, Sutton, Hodges, Germano, Joe Smith, Marte, Anthony Reyes, Chris Gimenez, Jose Constanza.   The goal would be to re-sign Hodges, Germano and Gimenez and trade all or most of the rest of these guys we still have under control before November 20th.   If we re-sign any of these guys, they become Rule 5-eligible at that point.

This is just my take but it is time this roster is turned over.  It is also time we went out on the limb with some of our young guys.  I know it is like a mantra to me but, darn, I dont' want to see any more of guys like Sutton, Huffman, Duncan, Anderson Hernandez, Grudz, Redmond, Kearns, etc. here UNLESS they are on exclusively minor league deals.  It is time we populated this roster with, AND used, guys like Josh Judy and Jess Todd.